Mike Littwin:
If you like the nasty, this should be the debate for you. Or maybe not.
We're only 17 days from the Iowa caucuses, and soon we'll have real votes instead of just endless polls. But the real story is that, as we head for the first real votes, we have no idea who is going to win.
The Donald has the polls. Just ask him. Ted Cruz now has the inside lane on the outsider vote, and although Trump has retaken the polling lead in Iowa, Cruz is still the favorite. And Rubio has a hold, so far, on the Establishment lead, with Christie, Kasich and Jeb! still arguably alive.
And so, you'll certainly see Rubio hit hard — by Christie (last heard saying Hillary Clinton would pat Rubio on the head and then cut his heart out), by Jeb! for his Senate attendance record, by Cruz for his immigration record.
Jeb!, meanwhile, will get one final pre-Iowa chance to show that he's not the greatest flop in the race. Last heard from, he was saying that The Donald has an order in from the jerk store.
But for the Fox Business Network debate to be really hot, Trump and Cruz have to engage with each other. We know the story of the bromance and how they've turned into frenemies, but what we don't know is what they'll do together on a stage while everyone is watching.
Cruz can out-debate Trump, but Cruz is suddenly vulnerable. It's not just the birther story, which Trump has somehow made seem semi-credible. It's The New York Times story that Cruz, the anti-Wall Street, anti-big-bank populist, borrowed money for his 2012 longshot Senate race — money that he didn't bother to report. The loans were from Wall Street's Goldman Sachs (where his wife works) and big-bank Citibank. Cruz says his failure to report the loans was an oversight. But where Trump comes in – if he dares — is to say that Cruz has hidden the fact that he's in the pockets of the same Wall Streeters he's always railing against. You know, the people like Donald Trump.
You can be pretty sure Rubio will bring this up, although who knows who will get the first shot? That could be the race within a race.
And that's where the nasty will certainly come in. But there are dangers here. Just how nasty is anyone willing to be in taking on Cruz, the champion debater and the politician who eats nasty for breakfast? That's where this Charleston, South Carolina debate may be decided. And maybe Iowa and New Hampshire, too.
James Viser:
I have to clean out the mental holiday cobwebs for the first GOP debate of 2016. This will be the first of two debates before the Iowa Caucus on February 1 — the first time actual voters will weigh in on who’s the next president. I'm looking forward to seeing how the candidates will differentiate themselves.
At this stage of the cycle, the GOP leads on both quantity and quality. That there are 14 strong candidates still in the Republican race demonstrates the deep bench of talent that the Party can draw from, standing in stark contrast to the Democratic lineup of just three. In addition, there are 12 scheduled GOP debates, as compared to six for the Democrats. Holding more debates over a longer period of time helps showcase the diversity of both ideas and candidates in a Republican Party united on principles and values.
It is unfortunate that Rand Paul decided to boycott the undercard debate. Carly Fiorina demonstrated how a shining performance in the undercard can elevate a candidate to the main event — although she has fallen in recent polls. Paul is an intelligent and powerful ambassador for the growing libertarian movement within the GOP. He will be missed.
I will be looking to see how so-called "establishment" candidates will contrast themselves to the "outsiders." In this election cycle, the GOP grassroots is in protest mode and tired of politics as usual, very similar to what’s happening on the Democratic side, given the increasing popularity of Bernie Sanders.
This is a competition, after all, and the first real votes are only weeks away. So candidates will be seeking a breakout moment, something to push them over the top in a crowded field of talented people. I’m looking forward to more sparring between the candidates, as they jockey to lead the pack into the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primaries.
Let the debate begin!
Photo credit: jinterwas, Creative Commons, Flickr.
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